The Tribe should already win the weak AL Central, but adding Harper would make them a more formidable postseason foe. The Indians could easily fit under the threshold while clearly upgrading from Tyler Naquin in right field. They’d also have a team everyone would want to watch, and one that could overtake Oakland (though probably not Houston) in the AL West. Harper could take a salary equal to Trout’s and the Angels would come in at $200,600,999. Signing Harper at the $44 million price tag would push them over the mark by more than $5 million, but come on, Harper and Mike Trout in the same outfield? If they explained to Harper they can’t possibly pay him more than Trout, ($33,250,000), the numbers could work. The Angels would be pushing it to stay under the threshold, which is $206 million this year. Taking all this into account, I narrowed the field down to Cleveland, Los Angeles Angels, Colorado, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Tampa. We are looking only at teams who can win now and have some financial wiggle room. I’ll also throw out teams who would go over the luxury tax threshold with such an investment. If Harper were to announce tomorrow that he wanted a one-year deal at $44 million, which teams could conceivably sit at the table and negotiate? Let’s rule out current suitors like the Padres, who would be looking more at the long-term value of Harper. Harper, with his average of 3.76 fWAR from 2016-2018, could ask for a deal based on that number, placing his value as a hired gun at $43.99 million-we’ll just call it an even $44 million. It doesn’t quite work out that way in real life, but you get the picture. So a player with an fWAR of 3.0, for example, would be worth $35.1 million in free agency. FanGraphs came up with a value of $11.7 million per win (or per fWAR) for players in free agency. He’d be risking a lot by shunning a long-term safety net. What would a single-season salary look like for Harper? He’d be foolish not to shoot for the moon. If you were a team looking to make a 10-plus year investment, would you be more comfortable investing in a 3.5 fWAR Harper, or a Harper who produces more like he did in his 2015 MVP season? The potential benefit to Harper signing a one-year deal is that he could have another MVP-type season in 2019. While capable of great heights, though, Harper’s last three seasons have seen him post fWAR’s of 3.0, 4.8 and 3.5 for an average 3.76 fWAR. Harper is a generational talent capable of a 10 fWAR season- Brantley, on the other hand, is not. Why would a team give Harper twice that amount per season? Look, I know comparing Harper to Brantley is not quite apples-to-apples. Brantley had a 3.5 fWAR in 2018, same as Harper. The Astros signed Michael Brantley this offseason for $32 million, but spread over two seasons, for an average annual value of $16 million. Those rankings are good, but are they $30 million per year good? Drilling down a bit further and comparing only outfielders, Harper was the 17th most valuable outfielder in baseball last year. Harper, though is coming off a 3.5 fWAR season, ranking him as the 46th most valuable position player (among qualified batters) in 2018. ![]() That’s not a knock on the young slugger-we all know what he’s capable of (see his 9.3 fWAR in 2015, for example)-and a “down year” for him still places him among the best in the game. Generally thought of as the number one free agent this year, Harper hasn’t quite been the “super elite” version of himself of late. Seeing those numbers, why would Harper sign a one-year deal? I’m sure a deal like this would be a little more complicated than that, with opt outs and so on, but you get the idea-the basic assumption was that Harper would get a long-term deal at a rate of $30 million annually. Harper was projected by MLB Trade Rumors to land a $420 million contract that spanned 14 years. In the current free agency climate, with teams reluctant to hand out the big, long-term deal, maybe players like Harper should shift gears and consider taking a short-term deal with a contender. It’s hard to believe players like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are still unsigned, still waiting for those huge projected paydays. This has gone on long enough-the offseason that just won’t end.
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